Number 4

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.20σ

23draws waiting · a wait this long: 10% for any number

7.7average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

25longest completed wait · 66% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 23 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 133 draws · average wait 7.7 draws · longest completed wait 25 · waiting 23 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest10 · chance 10.8
2nd smallest4 · chance 3.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.2
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

26 30 32 41 2 7

Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-04-25	9	1st	4 7 10 39 48
2014-02-21	4	2nd	2 4 21 30 41
2014-01-24	1	1st	4 28 30 36 46
2014-01-17	21	1st	4 7

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.