Number 38

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.49σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 90% for any number

9.1average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

19longest completed wait · 90% chance of one at least that long

38 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.49σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 38, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 133 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest2 · chance 0.6
3rd smallest2 · chance 3.1
4th smallest6 · chance 6.6
5th smallest5 · chance 4.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

37 47 18 33 39 41

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 38 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-09-19	5	4th	13 18 20 38 39
2014-08-15	2	2nd	17 38 41 43 47
2014-08-01	8	4th	5 18 33 38 47
2014-06-06	10	5th	6 9

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.