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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
Drawn 9 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, −1.24σ. Each draw is independent: after 42 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 9 times in 133 draws · average wait 9.4 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 42 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 24 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 24 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 24 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 24 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 24 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2012-12-21 | 3 | 3rd | 1120242535 |
| 2012-11-30 | 11 | 4th | 213212437 |
| 2012-09-14 | 6 | 4th | 1014152447 |
| 2012-08-03 | 4 | 4th | 1215182425 |
| 2012-07-06 | — | 3rd | 1022243338 |