Number 40

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/8 · Mar 2012 – Oct 2014 rules — 133 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.78σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 73% for any number

8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

29longest completed wait · 55% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 133 draws against 13.3 expected, +0.78σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 133 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.4
3rd smallest4 · chance 2.5
4th smallest4 · chance 6.9
5th smallest8 · chance 6.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

12 19 22 8 9 26

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2014-09-05	2	5th	26 31 33 39 40
2014-08-22	2	3rd	19 20 40 42 47
2014-08-08	16	5th	15 19 21 34 40
2014-04-18	11	3rd	12 32

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.